Ghana March Inflation Edges Higher, Clouds Rates Outlook

Ghana's annual inflation edged higher to 8.8 percent in March, data showed on Wednesday, leaving analysts split on whether the central bank will later this week hike rates to pre-empt further price pressures or keep them on hold. Ghana became the latest African economy to acquire middle-income status last year after its started commercial oil output in 2010. Its political stability and growing middle class have made it an attractive target for many foreign investors. "In March, general price levels went up by 1.2 month-to-month and 8.8 percent year-on-year," Philomena Nyarko, acting government statistician, told a news conference of an annual rate just higher than February's 8.6 percent. Nyarko said locally-produced items were major contributors to the increase in the rate but added that prices of clothing and textiles went up mainly because of the depreciation of the local cedi currency, as most of them are imported. The cedi has depreciated by over seven percent against the dollar in the first quarter of the year, pushed lower a range of factors including strong demand for dollars by local firms purchasing equipment. The figure comes two days before the Bank of Ghana rate-setting MPC committee is due to decide on Ghana's primary policy rate, which it hiked by 100 basis points to 13.5 percent at its last meeting in February. The statistics office also revised upwards its estimate of Ghana's 2011 growth rate to 14.4 percent from an earlier estimate of 13.6 percent. Ghana started commercial oil production from its offshore Jubilee field in late 2010. "We don't expect the MPC to change the policy rate from 13.5 percent at its meeting this Friday," said Yvonne Mhango, Sub-Saharan Africa economist at Renaissance Capital. "However, there is a low probability that the weak cedi could compel the MPC to tighten this week," she said. Razia Khan, head of Africa research at Standard Chartered, said the March inflation number, while relatively benign at below nine percent, created the case for a possible tightening of the prime rate by a further 100 basis points. "The pressure on the Ghana cedi has been sustained. This could easily spill over into a greater risk of higher inflation if not arrested," she said, adding: "Better to act pre-emptively than reactively, at the risk then of having to tighten a great deal more."