EIU�S September, 2014 overview on Ghana has stated that Nana Akufo Addo is heading towards victory in Saturday�s flagbearership elections �but the party is not entirely united behind him.�
The review also said that �inflation will fall slight in 2015, after peaking in 2014.
Below are excerpts from its outlook for 2014-18 and review.
Outlook for 2014-18
The main threat to the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) is discontent at the rate of improvement in living standards. This will be a key election issue in 2016. The NDC will benefit from incumbency powers at the next elections, but public unhappiness with high inflation, a week currency and slowing economic growth will be exploited by the opposition. Fiscal policy making will be made difficult by the need to cut the large deficit while managing the public�s high expectations arising from recent oil and gas finds.
Pre-election spending in 2016 will once again drive up the deficit. Real GDP growth will be restrained in the early part of the forecast period by lower consumer confidence. Growth wills the increase to an average of 8.7% in 2007-18, boosted by new oil production.
Inflation will fall slightly in 2015, after peaking in 2014, as utility price rises drop out of calculations. The downward trend will moderate in 2016 as fiscal policy loosens ahead of elections, before a fall back to 9% in 2018.
The large current-account deficit will come down only gradually during the forecast period, as increases in oil production during 2016-18 will be offset by lower prices.
Review
The race to become the presidential election candidate for the opposition New Patriotic Party is heating up.
Nana Akufo-Addo is heading towards victory, but the party is not entirely behind him. Ghana has raised US1bn via a new Eurobond.
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